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Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://bedford.io/misc/twitter/

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22 threads since April 22, 2020
June 20, 2020 / 14 tweets

A small follow up to the “long plateau” assessment of the #COVID19 epidemic. When I tweeted this on April 30, we had ~30k daily confirmed cases and ~2000 daily deaths. This last week, we had ~24k daily confirmed cases and ~700 daily deaths. 1/10

Trevor Bedford (@trvrb):
I know all the discussion is about a possible “2nd wave”, but I’ve found this odd given that we haven’t finished the first one. I would think quite possible that, nationally, we’re in for a scenario of a long plateau. 1/10
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465

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June 18, 2020 / 2 tweets

The relative scarcity of children recorded with confirmed cases of #COVID19 has been remarked on repeatedly. However, I actually hadn’t noticed until today that SARS in Hong Kong in 2003 also showed a scarcity (from @gmleunghku et al https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/0003-4819-141-9-200411020-00006). 1/2

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June 17, 2020 / 10 tweets

As many have noted, there has been an uptick in confirmed #COVID19 cases in multiple states starting roughly at the beginning of June. There is a major question surrounding how much “re-opening” efforts are contributing to increases in transmission. Figure from @nytimes. 1/10

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June 8, 2020 / 7 tweets

The simple model I was using here is perhaps worth thinking about in terms of how to mitigate impact from protests or other potential sources of transmission. 1/7

Trevor Bedford (@trvrb):
I appreciate the feedback I’ve gotten on these estimates (and whether it’s even responsible to make them). A couple of things to emphasize here. 1/11 https://t.co/ZtEUtQOwTK
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269783996109488130

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June 8, 2020 / 11 tweets

I appreciate the feedback I’ve gotten on these estimates (and whether it’s even responsible to make them). A couple of things to emphasize here. 1/11

Trevor Bedford (@trvrb):
Since January, I’ve striven to provide as complete an accounting of the #COVID19 pandemic as I can. And so I feel it is my job as a scientist to provide my best estimate of the amount of viral transmission the protests are likely to cause. 2/21
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395226541518849

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June 7, 2020 / 17 tweets

In the back-of-the-envelopment assessment earlier, I forgot to include tertiary and further layers of infections. Doing so increases the estimate of the overall number of eventual deaths significantly to 200-1100 deaths per day of protests. 1/12

Trevor Bedford (@trvrb):
Thus, we might expect ~3000 infections per day as a result of protests, occurring mostly within younger healthy individuals. The national Rt number is roughly 1, so we expect these ~3000 infections to then cause on average another ~3000 infections in the broader community. 10/21
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395236490326016

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June 6, 2020 / 22 tweets

The appalling killing of George Floyd and video after video after video of police brutality cements the elemental rightness of the Black Lives Matter cause. 1/21

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June 3, 2020 / 11 tweets

I’m of course concerned about the protests contributing to epidemic resurgence of #COVID19. They are outside, but close contact and large crowds are risk factors and if they continue day after day with the same group of people you risk amplification. 1/8

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June 2, 2020 / 6 tweets

Excellent reporting by @AP outlining timeframe of release of #SARSCoV2 genetic data in early Jan as the #COVID19 outbreak unfolded in Wuhan. 1/6 https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae

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June 2, 2020 / 8 tweets

Slightly belated, but a response to the US cutting ties with the @WHO and a bit on my relationship with the organization. 1/8 https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/29/trump-us-terminate-who-relationship/

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